A sudden! Yellow phosphorus comprehensive production! Prices have soared!

Writer： MAYHARVEST Time：2022-10-03 17:47:29 /p>

A sudden! Yellow phosphorus comprehensive production! Prices have soared! 

Since September, the volume and price of yellow phosphorus have been rising in the face of energy consumption policy control. The author has learned that by September 26, in order to implement the "Energy efficiency Management Plan for energy-consuming Industries from September 2022 to May 2023" formulated by relevant departments of Yunnan Province, yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan Province have fully reduced production and stopped production. Ren Hairong, an industry analyst with Longzhong Information, said Yunnan's production limit on yellow phosphorus industry was sudden and implemented quickly, and the relevant policies had been implemented before midnight on the 26th. After the production of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is reduced, due to the high downstream demand before, the current inventory of enterprises is very small. Even if downstream factories have orders, yellow phosphorus enterprises will basically no longer release goods, which is in a state of being reserved for sale. This round of production reduction in Yunnan has a great impact on yellow phosphorus supply. So far, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan has fallen to around 41%, down 28% from mid-September, with daily output of 805 tons, down about 580 tons, or 41.87%, from mid-September. Over the weekend, Yunnan Province, the main producer of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan, had the highest operation rate, with an overall operation rate of about 66 percent. In just a few days, Yunnan's operating rate dropped 25 percent, while supply dropped more than 40 percent.

Longzhong Information price monitoring data shows that as of September 28, major domestic yellow phosphorus enterprises quoted prices at 38,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500-2,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. It is understood that after the introduction of the production limit policy, there are 3 yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan Province to stop production, and 18 enterprises to reduce load production. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprise with the largest output in Yunnan Province is Yunnan Jiang Phosphorus Group, whose daily output is only 110 tons. The listed enterprise ST Chengxing (600078.SH) has two major factories in Yunnan with a reduction of about 50%. After the introduction of the production limit policy, the enterprise stopped selling yellow phosphorus to the outside world on the one hand, mainly for self-use; On the one hand, we plan to start the internal thermal power system function of the enterprise to improve output. Relevant enterprise personnel said that the price increase of yellow phosphorus in the last two days has exceeded the price increase of the last week, under the current price increase, the profit of yellow phosphorus has exceeded ten thousand yuan, the price after the holiday continues to rise is more likely, so it can absorb the cost of power generation, but the specific situation needs to be negotiated with the relevant management departments.

And the yellow phosphorus industry traders also said optimistic about the yellow phosphorus after the holiday, the current power policy impact is not only Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan also have related rumors, but the two policy details have not yet been issued, once the policy is introduced, yellow phosphorus production will decline more, so traders are actively taking stock of goods, waiting for the National Day after the price increase. However, the yellow phosphorus price, in the short term on the downstream of the hot process phosphoric acid and phosphorus trichloride industry limited impact. Thermal-process phosphoric acid and phosphorous trichloride have risen substantially in advance around September 20. At present, the downstream demand of thermal-process phosphoric acid increases because the price is low. Once the price of yellow phosphorus increases, the price rises, and the downstream demand will shrink significantly. In addition, the 400,000-ton high purity wet-process phosphoric acid project in Wengfu, Guizhou has been put into production and supplied recently. Wet-process phosphoric acid uses phosphate ore as raw material, and its cost is much lower than that of thermonic phosphoric acid. If wet-process phosphoric acid wants to occupy the market and maintain a low price, thermonic phosphoric acid will have no room for price increase. However, there are relevant enterprise personage said that many downstream enterprises before the current festival and yellow phosphorus enterprises have signed the right amount of high price orders. However, if the price rises too fast after the yellow Phosphorus Festival, for example, the price of yellow phosphorus exceeds 40,000 yuan/ton, then the cost pressure of downstream enterprises will be greater, the demand will drop significantly, and there will be a relatively obvious price game between supply and demand.